Labor Pains
By: J.T. Pinch
Not long after 12:01 a.m. Friday morning, the annual NFL talent bazaar will spring to life, and hopeful buyers will shop for top-shelf commodities and hunt for bargains, just as always. But unlike previous years, when the pursuit of players and the price of doing business were the primary concerns, a different set of circumstances will prevail and will presage what will be a tumultuous period for the league.
Because the arrival of free agency coincides with the expiration of the current labor rules, the NFL is officially on the clock. Each April, that means draft picks are coming. This time, it refers to the very real possibility of a work stoppage after the 2010 season. Though labor talks continue between league owners and NFL Players Association president DeMaurice Smith and his lieutenants, little if any, progress has been made. Because of that, this year will be uncapped, meaning the league's groundbreaking method of providing for salary equality among its disparate members disappears. It will be unwise to expect binge spending by owners - even Jerry Jones and Daniel Snyder - due to the uncertainty of the future. Why dole out a bunch of new contracts when no one can truly predict what cap provisions the next agreement will include?
Complicating things further is the crop of players available to those teams looking for help. The cap's departure is the top story in this free agency period. Below the fold is news that eligibility for full freedom now moves to six years, from four. Dozens of players won't like that, because they will remain in the "restricted" category and will cost teams that sign them the money in their contracts plus first-round draft picks.
The free agent adjustment is genuinely important, but the bigger concern is the brewing labor trouble within the league. No matter how hard everyone involved tries to make 2010 seem like the same old NFL, there is no way that will be true. In fact, the season could well be the final one of professional football as we know it. When the current labor agreement was negotiated, then-commissioner Paul Tagliabue preached conciliation and a devotion to the whole and was able to convince a cadre of hard-line owners that keeping things moving in the same direction would benefit everybody.
Because of their respect for Tagliabue, Jones, Snyder, Bob Kraft and other bottom-line guys went along with the argument that maintaining a system that allows all markets to compete fairly was in the NFL's best interest. It's hard to argue with that stance, since league revenues now exceed $7 billion annually. The trouble is, Jones et al did not make their fortunes looking out for the other guy. They want to exploit competitive advantages, be that in marketing their clubs or sticking it to the union. These negotiations will be characterized by a struggle to lower labor costs and to allow franchises more control over their ancillary profits, such as merchandising and sponsorships. Commissioner Roger Goodell must find a way to get 32 rich men to work together. Then, he can address the labor concerns. And, unlike Tagliabue, who had a long track record on his side and plenty of political capital that could help him broker compromises, Goodell is in his first labor negotiation and was brought to power by many of the same owners who were angry about Tagliabue's deal.
None of this is good for fans. Forget for the moment about whether a splintering of the once rock-solid ownership cartel will impact your wallet when it comes to buying tickets or jerseys. The real impact here will be on the 2011 season, which is likely to include a major work stoppage. That means "replacement players," tedious reports of negotiations and posturing by both sides and likely a brand new way of doing business in the NFL. The Draft could be affected. Next year's free agency might be shrouded in mystery and could extend for months, as teams try to decide what to do with payrolls as labor trouble looms. When asked whether he believed there would be a work stoppage, Smith said that on a scale of 1-to-10, it was a "14." That may be a bit dramatic, but it nonetheless demonstrates just how difficult it will be to hammer out a new agreement.
The change in this year's free agent market will definitely have an impact on teams trying to rebuild their teams or add important components for more post-season success. Players will be hard-hit by what is likely to be a softer market and also the specter of restricted free agency that seemed impossible a couple years ago. But as upsetting as all that might be, the real mayhem doesn't start until next year, when an angry group of owners tries to exert its will among its peers and its employees.
It's going to get ugly. Bet on that.
